Do these models assume a static(constant) average temperature global or otherwise? Learn more about waves and wave interference by launching the Stadium Wave simulation below: Further Reading. In football, soccer and baseball, there is only the Wave, the sweeping mass of spectators rising in sequence around a stadium. (physics: wave equation solution) ecuación de onda loc nom f locución nominal femenina: Unidad léxica estable formada de dos o más palabras que funciona como sustantivo femenino ("casa de citas", "zona cero", "arma secreta"). Note something travels from left to right in the animation (or around the stadium in the video). Answer Save. The result is a wave of standing spectators that travels through the crowd, even though individual spectators never move away from their seats. The stadium wave periodically enhances or dampens the trend of long-term rising temperatures, which may explain the recent hiatus in rising global surface temperatures. Transverse & Longitudinal Waves | Waves | Physics | FuseSchoolWaves transfer energy from one place to another. So you base your whore article on guess work. 1 ESF1124/ECEF1024 FUNDAMENTALS OF PHYSICS Waves Waves are everywhere. It may not occur to you that it's a special thing that the Earth and everything found on it is made of matter; it seems intuitive that it couldn't be any other way. Great job. If the "hiatus" is defined as a period that is not "zero warming" but rather reduce warming, than the hiatus itself did't exist because that is not what a hiatus is. A second way to evaluate your finding is to seek internal statistical or numerical relationships that result in apparent meaning but that are actually artifacts of your methods. ''But if enough people around them become excited, then they jump up.'' Favorite Answer. The way I got through the paper was asking the lead author a bunch of questions. Yes, aerosols from volcanic and other sources influence the outcome. It’s measurements made with … well, measuring devices and stuff. Waves are vibrations that transfer energy from place to place without matter (solid, liquid or gas) being transferred. At a football game, the “wave” might circulate through the stands and move around the stadium. Compared to the these two waves how is the stadium wave different?? OK, thought so. The wave is passed from row to row as each individual member of the row becomes temporarily displaced out of his or her seat, only to return to it as the wave passes by. Astronomer's Toolbox A look at the tools and methods scientists use to study the high energy universe. It's measurements made with ... well, measuring devices and stuff. ScienceBlogs is a registered trademark of Science 2.0, a science media nonprofit operating under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. We know the orbital forcing that paces glacial-interglacial cycles, along with amplification from greenhouse gases. Relevance. Imagine you are now driving something … a car or a plane … with a blindfold. Go back to the fly vs. drive analogy. "cosmic, I can’t believe one of your links actually touts the thoroughly discredited Marcott paper". The ‘hiatus’ will continue at least another decade it offset some greenhouse warming.”, The previously used detrending also missed the contribution of other factors that probably make the AMO look like something it isn’t. "Spurious warming at best" tends to be either within or near IPCC's summarized model predictions (the IPCC makes no model predictions, just so you know) or near it, and adjustments which are recognized as valid in the peer reviewed research seem to always push the temp record into the predicted zones; adjustments such as filing in blanks in the sampling. Generally speaking, this is where a major variable (temperature or air pressure) in a given area or between two areas shifts back and forth around a mean. But say I don’t want my signal to be messed up by certain factors, such as caffeine intake, aerobic exercise, or watching episodes of exciting TV shows. Without some kind of better definition the prediction doesn't mean much and can't be tested. The models climate scientists use are pretty good, but this would make them more useful and accurate. This mental picture of a stadium wave will also provide a useful context for the discussion of the physics of wave motion. If we take the perspective of one of the Intertube's full on climate science denialists, "global temperatures have not gone up in 16 years" (or whatever) than the hiatus ends with the first year that is warmer than the warmest previous year in that 16 year period (to be generous) which probably means it ended in 2013 or will surely end in 2014. What experiences do we already have which will help us in understanding the physics of waves? But seriously, I'll be talking about the story of the current…, In every area of life, but especially in the overlapping realms of technology, science, and health, misunderstanding how things work can be widespread, and that misunderstanding can lead to problems. We are part of Science 2.0, a science education nonprofit operating under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. “But aerosols have tailed off in recent decades thanks to the Clean Air Acts, etc. ” check out the difference between longitudinal and transverse waves. We'll suppose it's a normal pitch, except in the instant the pitcher releases the ball, it magically accelerates to 0.9c. ScienceBlogs is where scientists communicate directly with the public. It demonstrates an all too common error, or at least potentially demonstrates it well enough to examine as an exemplar of what not to do. cosmicomics: Yes, I think that if the "hiatus ends" much sooner than 10 years that would disprove that prediction, but it is trickier than that. Think about a "stadium wave:" the people are moving up and down, but the wave is going around the stadium. Mann, Michael, Byron Steinmann, and Sonya Miller. Mann, Steinman and Miller, in this new paper, tried something interesting. Energy transfer and waves. To properly turn the jet you have to tilt it, let it start flying in the new direction, then untilt it. As I wrote, I'm unfamiliar with Curry's research, but what if this is a recognizable pattern in her work that contributes to results that give lower attributions to human causes? The relationship between different variables in a complicated system has to be known or assumed to do this kind of adjustment. Further, the new hypothesis suggests how long the hiatus might last. The short version of the story is this: Curry’s Stadium Wave is an artifact of her methods. It will be interesting to see if further work allows further refinement of our understanding of these systems over coming months or years. What can explain this change? from a major non profit, click through the the X Blog to read the press release. If the contest is exciting, the threshold level for initiating a Wave increases. And every time two particles interact with one another, the Universe is forever different from how it was a moment before. College_Physics_Serway_7th_Edition-azNBAlla161.pdf. "Is there a tendency in her research that would suggest that her methods lead to preordained results?". Stay up to date with the official news, events, and announcements about education, research, and outreach at the University of Minnesota. I very much appreciate that you're willing to reply to and sometimes discuss with persons who comment here. I'm aware that minor flaws don't necessarily undermine a paper's findings, but this would be more than a minor flaw. In many large … Perhaps, in doing so, you’ve figured something out. This way they could see the exact effects of the AMO on surface temperatures and other variables and explore the relationship between the variables. It always has. Here’s another analogy that may help. Why does E=mc^2? For those periods of time I adjust the heart rate data based my numerical model of those effects, and the result is the detrended heart rate. Yes, you're right. A universe full of extremely high energies, high densities, high pressures, and extremely intense magnetic fields which allow us to test our understanding of the laws of physics. So, I estimate the effects of these other activities on heart rate using some independent information and come up with a linear fudge factor. Is there a tendency in her research that would suggest that her methods lead to preordained results? I assume you are right about the 'stable science of anthropogenic global warming'. Sound waves are made of a series of high and low points. Doug Proctor says: “A standing wave is different from a stadium wave in that there is movement of particles through the nodal part, whereas the stadium wave has the particles (people) stationary while the up-and-down aspect (amplitude) changes. Energy is a conserved quantity; the law of conservation of energy states that energy can be converted in form, but not created or destroyed. The AMO signal turns out to be much smaller (and the estimated amplitude is consistent with findings from coupled model simulations that exhibit an AMO oscillation).”. Wave periods are described in terms of amplitude and length. One example of this is a wave … The radius of the circles decreases as the depth into the water increases. As a wave travels through the waver, the particles travel in clockwise circles. In physics a wave can be thought of as a disturbance or oscillation that travels through space-time, accompanied by a transfer of energy. Previous work, including that done by Curry but also others, treated the AMO as a long term change in sea surface temperature that could be identified by removing other signals using some standard statistical techniques, most notably “detrending.” Detrending is where you have a known (or presumed) signal that imposes a certain pull on the system over time. The stadium wave hypothesis provides a plausible explanation for the hiatus in warming and helps explain why climate models did not predict this hiatus. 2 Answers. Back when I used to teach multi-variate statistics for grad students (co-taught with a brilliant statistician, I quickly add) this is the kind of abstract we would look for to use in class. This is classic Monday-morning quarterback analysis. (for Ask Ethan), Constructive interference occurs when the crests of one wave overlap the crests of the other wave, causing an increase in wave amplitude. Physclips provides multimedia education in introductory physics at different levels. The true AMO signal, instead, appears likely to have been in a cooling phase in recent decades, offsetting some of the anthropogenic warming temporarily.”. The Eurasian Arctic Shelf-Sea Region, where sea ice is uniquely exposed to open ocean in the Northern Hemisphere, emerges as a strong contender for generating and sustaining propagation of the hemispheric signal. According to Mann, “Rather than contributing to recent warming, the correctly-estimated AMO signal appears to have contributed cooling over the past decade, i.e. If they did, no other scientists would take them seriously, and it's hard to see how they, by denying fundamental physics, could have become scientists at all. They also built computer models of the phenomenon, and found that it followed theoretical models of so-called excitable media like heart tissue. Couldn't quite bring yourself to posting my last comments? Wave motion transfers energy from one point to another, often with no permanent displacement of the particles of the … So sound waves are also pressure waves. All the rest of the stuff you say is either wrong or out of place too. wave function n noun: Refers to person, place, thing, quality, etc. The latter without the former is potentially wrong. The…, "Yes, indeed, if humankind — from humble farmers in the fields and toiling workers in the cities to teachers, people of independent means, those who have reached the pinnacle of fame or fortune, even the most frivolous of society women — if they knew what profound inner pleasure await those who gaze at the heavens, then France, nay, the whole of Europe, would be covered with telescopes instead of…, Waving Good Bye To The Stadium Wave Model: About that global warming hiatus, The Ocean is the Dog. They recreated a set of scenarios in which they could observe the AMO and other climate variables over time, but rather than having the AMO be a variable subject to emergence after other factors are accounted for, they introduced a known AMO. Andres Ruiz Sosa. Mann also told me that some of the other large scale oscillations that make up part of the standard descriptions of Earth climate systems could be subject to similar artifactual effects. In so doing they have supported a fossil fuel friendly policy of no need to do anything now. ''You need these three states in order to produce a solitary wave propagating through a medium,'' Dr. Vicsek said. The tempo of signal propagation is rationalized in terms of the … Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Or, perhaps you just made up some stuff. That is the null hypothesis they assume. Based on the stadium wave paper, Curry states that “the 'hiatus' will continue at least another decade.” What if the so-called hiatus doesn't continue, but soon comes to an undeniable end followed by temperature variations at a higher level? TimesMachine is an exclusive benefit for home delivery and digital subscribers. Also, the earth was once a fiery ball of molten stuff. Curry’s Stadium Wave is a kind of emergent property of climate, where this and that thing happens and results in a large effect because of compounding variables. But there is a problem with that technique. Parts of transverse waves: For this week'…, “That there were other worlds, invisible, unknown, beyond imagination even, was a revelation to him.” -Kim Edwards The short version of the story is this: Curry’s Stadium Wave is an artifact of her methods. Immediately upon stretching to full height, the spectator returns to the usual seated position. This led to a number of statements and predictions by Curry, which have been parsed out here. Waves are vibrations that transfer energy from place to place without matter (solid, liquid or gas) being transferred. We know that there is long term global warming caused by the release of fossil Carbon (mainly as Carbon Dioxide) into the atmosphere. Juice, no, the hockey stick is not an artifact of convoluted analyses that accidentally pushed out a realistic looking pattern. The wave direction and the particle motion define the plane of polarisation. That was, in fact, a past climate. I. Farkas, D. Helbing, T. Vicsek. Wave interference is the interaction of waves with other waves. The paper under consideration here, “On Forced Temperature Changes, Internal Variability and the AMO” by Michael Mann, Byron Steinman, and Sonya Miller, addresses the Stadium Wave issue (and other matters). If you watch a log floating on the sea, it bobs up and down as the waves go past, but does not rush in with the wave. You drive around a bit at a regular speed, make four left turns, and when you are done you may be able to draw your path on a map with reasonable accuracy because you have an accurate expectation of what happens when you turn the wheel of a car. For example, let’s say that drinking a latte before Cardio-Kick makes the effects of Cardio-Kick five times more intense on the heart rate. Let’s say you know how to drive a car. Greg- I've noticed that Curry is often brought up (i.e. By carefully timing the voltage changes, the researchers generate a polarization current that accelerates to a speed much faster than that of light. She is probably at the extrem(ish) end of those who are real live climate scientists as far as the degree of human effect she thinks likely and other matters, though I've not studied her position on all these matters closely enough to know for sure. In the former the particle movement is parallel to wave … 2014. In physics, energy is the quantitative property that must be transferred to an object in order to perform work on, or to heat, the object. So waves are everywhere. Nature. Juice, do you know anything about tree rings? • Sound waves, visible light waves, radio waves, microwaves, water waves, sine waves, cosine waves, stadium waves, earthquake waves, waves on a string • Where do we see waves or examples of wavelike motion? But it has always warmed and cooled for specific reasons. If you subtract off a straight line from the temperature trend, you will appear to have an “oscillation”, but that oscillation is just mostly due to the non-linear nature of the long-term forcing, with a substantial positive forcing (warming through 1950s, then slight warming or even cooling from the 1950s–1970s due to a large sulphate aerosol cooling contribution), followed by the accelerated warming in recent decades as aerosols have tailed off. But a Wave's success also depends in part on the quality of the play on the field. How can waves be described in a manner that allows us to understand their basic nature and qualities? Please name the peer-reviewed paper or papers in which it was discredited. They call this the “differenced-AMO approach.” Knowing the true AMO signal they were able to produce a correct climate signal, and when the AMO signal was detrended in this scenario, the final result failed to match known internal variability. When did Curry begin distancing herself from mainstream science? We foundthat the Mexican wave can be decomposedinto two phenomena: the for-mation of the wave andthe propagation of the wave. More important, is the stadium wave paper so tied to the 'hiatus' and its continuation that an abrupt renewal of warming would call the paper's fundamental logic into question? (This is one of the more interesting dividing lines between the blog septics who reject every proof of climate change, and the scientists they invoke.) :) Both have “amplitude”. For example, if I want to know the average heart beat rate of a set of people, I could just hook them up to a monitor and collect data and get an average. What type of wave would this be characterized as? Stadium Wave (Wave Speed, Interference) | Physics | Interactive Simulation | CK-12 Exploration Series If you knew about this non-linear relationship, you could adjust for it, but if you don’t know about it, or assume it to be not significant and thus ignore it, than your results will be wrong. Here at Starts With A Bang, this past week saw us explore a number of aspects of our ever-changing reality, including: I assume that is not the case. Doesn't sound like the scientific method to me. Wave motion and the concepts of wave speed and frequency are also explored. There appear to be those, and all of them may be pundits rather than scientists, who question simply the questioning. That's just physics. Also, there are various indicators that the coming year or so may be extra warm, depending on what happens in the Pacific Ocean. Incorrect accounting for natural internal variability implies: Biased attribution of 20th century warming [and] Climate models are not useful on decadal time scales. World record for the biggest Mexican Wave. “These aerosols have cooled substantial regions of the Northern Hemisphere continents in recent decades, thus masking some of the warming we otherwise would have seen,” Mann told me. Probably not. These waves will jump small gaps in U-shaped stadiums and reflect off dead ends. Leviathan is "The Lord of All Waters" and is the king of the Eidolons that live on a parallel plane of existence in the Underworld—the Feymarch—and rules the summoned monsters with Queen Asura.He knows that Rydia of Mist was one of the last surviving Summoners.. The stadium "wave" is considered what type of wave? Climate models are too sensitive to external forcing Sea waves or tides, a sound which we hear, a photon of light travelling and even the movement of small plants blown by the wind are all examples of different types of waves. Detrending is removing the decades long increase in temperatures due to global warming, and these alternate models do that as well but in a different way, as I understand it. Nothing is hidden. Please make a tax-deductible donation if you value independent science communication, collaboration, participation, and open access. A stadium wave (or Mexican wave) is a great example of a wave. Making those dipole moments larger and smaller creates a polarization current that runs through the whole dielectric in the same way that sports fans standing and waving their arms in succession create a stadium wave. For this reason, the high quality record of surface temperature change allows us to only see a couple of full oscillations, and this makes it hard to characterize and even harder to explain causally. The Stadium Wave is alleged to happen when the AMO and other related climate factors peak and wane in sync, but this new paper shows that this is a statistical artifact. I have yet to see any option that is worse than ignoring the risk of global warming and doing nothing."http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/10/10/AR20071…. In physics, there are standing waves, longitudinal waves and transverse waves, to name just a few. I'm not familiar with Curry's research, but I am familiar with her general position in the climate debate and her position on proactive mitigation. A simple wave … . The probability of a successful Wave was slight with a ''triggering'' group of about 25 but increased as the size approached 40. This involves turning the wheel in a certain direction a certain amount as the car goes through the curve, then straightening out the wheel to go straight after the curve. If you didn’t know that, than your detrending of heart rate would get messed up. No? Visible waves are probably the easiest to think about, and many types of mechanical oscillation generate visible waves. What characteristics, properties, or behaviors are shared by the phenomena that we typically characterize as being a wave? So, no. Thanks for your answer. Adapting a model developed to describe waves in mediums like heart tissue or along forest-fire fronts, they have determined how the Wave is initiated. 1 decade ago. “I assume that this is a case of casting about among the data for patterns and finding one, and instead of the pattern being real it is an artifact of the method.”. There is no answer to the politics that Mann plays, it completely contradicts the "we're above it all" scientist rhetoric of the global warming alarmists and modelers. This is not true. This is then numerically removed from the signal as a linear adjustment. Other examples include an oscillating string and a wave of fans in a stadium (the people move up and down while the wave moves around the stadium). Controlling these different waves, which represent important principles of physics, is how people learn to make music. According to Mann, “Past studies arguing for a large AMO temperature signal with a substantial contribution to recent warming have assumed that the forced component of climate change (human factors such as greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, as well as natural factors such as volcanoes and solar output changes) is a simple straight line, a linear trend.
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